Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, June 24th

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite stocks being mixed and little to drive trading this morning. The Dow is currently up 56 points while the Nasdaq is down 8 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32 (2.04%), but we still should see an increase of approximately .125 of a discount point in this morning’s mortgage rates if comparing to Friday’s early pricing. This is due to afternoon selling Friday. If you saw an upward revision intraday Friday, you may not see another change this morning.

6/32


Bonds


30 yr - 2.04%

56


Dow


26,775

8


NASDAQ


8,023

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium


Neutral


None

There is nothing on tap today in terms of economic data that we should be watching, the only day of the week without a report scheduled. The rest of the week brings us the release of six economic reports that may influence mortgage rates along with two Treasury auctions and a speaking engagement by Fed Chairman Powell. A couple of these reports certainly can cause a change in mortgage rates, but none are considered to be key releases.

Low


Unknown


New Home Sales

The week’s calendar starts at 10:00 AM tomorrow morning with the release of May's New Home Sales report. This Commerce Department release helps us measure housing sector strength by tracking sales of newly constructed homes. It is the sister release to last week's Existing Home Sales report, but covers a much smaller portion of sales than that report did. It is expected to show a small rise in sales, although it will likely not have much of an impact on mortgage rates because this data gives such a small snapshot of the housing sector. I believe it will take a large rise in sales or a sizable decline for this data to influence mortgage rates.

Medium


Unknown


Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board)

Also late tomorrow morning will be the release of June's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). This data is relevant to the financial markets because it measures consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident about their own financial and employment situations, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future, fueling economic growth. If it shows a sizable increase in confidence from last month, we can expect to see a negative reaction in bonds and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 132.0, down from last month's 134.1 reading. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates.

Medium


Unknown


Fed Talk

Lastly, Fed Chairman Powell has a speaking engagement tomorrow afternoon that may be a major event or a non-factor. He will be speaking with a New York Times writer about the hurdles the economy is facing at 1:00 PM ET. Anytime the Fed Chair speaks, their words are watched closely. The topic is directly related to economic growth, so the likelihood of the markets reacting is elevated.

---


Unknown


None

Overall, there is no clear candidate for most important day of the week. Friday is possible with two releases while Wednesday has the most important report. Tomorrow’s economic data isn’t too concerning, but the afternoon conversation with Chairman Powell has the potential to be a heavy influence on the markets. The calmest day will probably be Thursday, assuming nothing unexpected happens. Besides the above mentioned events, we also need to be attentive to trade-related news that can have a big impact on the financial and mortgage markets. We will likely see rates move multiple days this week, so it would be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


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